Learn How to Properly Project Your Cannabis Yields

When people plan a new cultivation room or facility, one of the first questions is always the same:

How much will we yield?

The problem is that many yield projections are built on the wrong foundation. We see it all the time when clients are budgeting for a new build, pitching investors, or trying to forecast production. They count plants, guess grams per plant, and end up with numbers that feel exciting but do not hold up once the room is running.

If you want a realistic forecast, stop counting plants and start following the light.

Stop Counting Plants

Plant count sounds like the obvious way to project yield, but it ignores what actually drives production in indoor cultivation.

In controlled environment agriculture, yield is limited by the room’s ability to deliver consistent, usable light and then support that light with the right environment. A room with poor HVAC, weak dehumidification, or inconsistent irrigation will not convert high light into high yield. And a room with strong genetics but low light intensity will never hit its potential.

Plants do not determine yield. The room does.

Follow The Light

If your room is engineered properly and your climate, irrigation, and workflow support the crop, then your yield projection should start with lighting performance.

The most useful way to think about production is yield per unit of canopy under a target light level. That’s where PPFD comes in.

• PPF is the total output of a fixture in micromoles per second.

• PPFD is the intensity that reaches the canopy, measured as micromoles per second per square meter.

PPF is what the light produces. PPFD is what your plants actually receive, and it is the number that matters for yield forecasting.

Target PPFD For Flowering

For flowering cannabis, many successful rooms operate in the range of:

600 to 900 PPFD
with higher intensity possible when the environment, CO2 strategy, and plant health can support it.

More light can increase yield, but only when your room can keep up. If your HVAC and dehumidification are undersized, chasing higher PPFD often leads to stress, reduced quality, disease pressure, or inconsistent outcomes.

Light drives yield. Climate protects it.

A Practical Way To Forecast Yield

For quick projections, a simple industry rule of thumb still helps, as long as you use it conservatively.

1 to 2 pounds per flowering light per harvest
based on strong room performance, solid genetics, and a dialed process.

Yes, some rooms can exceed that, but it is smarter to plan using a realistic baseline so your business model is not built on best case scenarios.

What A 4trees Micro Can Produce

A common 4trees micro cultivation layout is around 6,000 square feet, typically designed with roughly 120 overhead flowering fixtures split across two flower rooms. Many builds also include approximately 300 under canopy fixtures, not including nursery and mother room lighting. In higher intensity rooms, side lighting may be added as well to push uniformity and total usable photons across the canopy.

We often recommend two flowering rooms because it supports a consistent harvest rhythm. With the right workflow and scheduling, operators can target:

130 to 168 pounds per month
as a steady baseline in higher light facilities.

Higher light, when paired with the right HVAC, dehumidification, irrigation strategy, and SOP execution, can translate directly into increased yields. Under strong SOPs, good strain selection, and a fully tuned environment, we have also seen clients exceed these numbers significantly. The key is that the facility is designed to run like an operation, not just a room with lights.

Why This Matters

Accurate yield forecasting is not just about bragging rights. It shapes everything:

• facility size and layout decisions

• HVAC and electrical requirements

• staffing plans and workflow

• production scheduling

• investor confidence and financial planning

If you are projecting yields for a new build, the safest approach is to forecast based on lighting and canopy, then validate that your environmental design can support that intensity consistently.

If you want help confirming your targets, we can review your room concept and give you a realistic production range based on your layout, lighting plan, and climate strategy.